Q3 2026 Data Don’t Indicate the American Manufacturing Renaissance Trump Claims, but Show Signs of Turnaround Including Recovery of U.S. Industrial Jobs Lost in 2025

Press Contact: Zachary Hagen-Smith, zhagen-smith@economicliberties.us

WASHINGTON, D.C.– A new analysis by Rethink Trade shows that the third-quarter 2026 data do not support President Trump’s claim that he has delivered an American manufacturing renaissance. While U.S. industrial employment has returned to pre-Trump II levels after losses in 2025 and manufacturing shipments are growing, the U.S. trade deficit in manufactured goods is now deeper than before Trump’s second term started and investment in factory construction remains 32% lower than before Trump returned to office. 

• U.S. manufacturing employment increased by 54,000 jobs during Q3 2026 but following the losses in 2025, it was not until the end of Q3 that the number of U.S. manufacturing jobs—12,681,000—returned to levels similar to those before Trump’s second term began.
• Investment in manufacturing capacity, including spending on manufacturing construction, stopped falling in Q3, but remains 32% below January 2025 levels.
• The manufactured goods trade deficit in the first three quarters of 2026 is substantially larger (11%) than in the first three quarters of 2024, but slightly smaller (-0.8%) than in the same period of 2025.
• Shipments of U.S.-made durable goods and nondefense capital goods continued to grow.

After months of frequent changes, tariff rates have largely stabilized, and some remaining tariffs appear to be contributing to manufacturing gains. But manufacturing job growth may also reflect the lag between hiring and construction after the boom in factory investment that followed the Biden administration industrial policy initiatives. The AI boom is also driving equipment demand, but also increasing imports.

“It’s good news that we have returned to the manufacturing employment level from before Trump II after losses in 2025 and that some other key indicators show progress, but the data make very clear that we are a long way from the manufacturing Renaissance Trump claims to have delivered,” said Lori Wallach, Director of the Rethink Trade program at American Economic Liberties Project. 

See the webpage with trade and manufacturing data in full here. 

Rethink Trade is a program of the American Economic Liberties Project.

Learn more about Economic Liberties and Rethink Trade.

The American Economic Liberties Project works to ensure America’s system of commerce is structured to advance, rather than undermine, economic liberty, fair commerce, and a secure, inclusive democracy. Economic Liberties believes true economic liberty means entrepreneurs and businesses large and small succeed on the merits of their ideas and hard work; commerce empowers consumers, workers, farmers, and engineers instead of subjecting them to discrimination and abuse from financiers and monopolists; foreign trade arrangements support domestic productive capacity, resilience and democracy; and wealth is broadly distributed to support equitable political power.