The U.S. Global Trade Deficit Is Up, Manufacturing Jobs Are Down, Industrial Growth Is Mixed
This page will be updated quarterly (timely release of government data allowing). These data will provide a look at the most important manufacturing indicators and trade and jobs data — including the manufactured goods trade balance — to measure real outcomes against the Trump administration’s promises.
Two trends we will carefully track for the last quarter of 2025: After a huge jump in the trade deficit in the first three months of Trump’s second term, in the two subsequent quarters, imports fell back to 2024 levels and in some instances dropped further, especially in June. But, despite this, manufacturing indicators still do not show the desired revitalization of the sector and manufacturing job loss has continued.
Total U.S. manufacturing employment declined to 12,706,000 employees in September 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is down 49,000 during the months Trump has been in office starting from a base of 12,755,000 employees at the end of January 2025, and down 94,000 from 12,800,000 American manufacturing employees in September 2024. Manufacturing employment rose slightly from 12,755,000 in January 2025 to 12,764,000 employees in April 2025, and then fell every month since May to the current level.
The trade gap has widened significantly as imports jumped significantly in January, February, and March, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Imports in Q1 2025 were $198.9 billion higher than in Q1 2024 (inflation-adjusted), while exports were only $19.7 billion higher in Q1 2025 than in Q1 2024. Q2 2025 imports were $4 billion lower than Q2 2024 (inflation-adjusted) and $184.8 billion lower than Q1 2025. Imports decreased again in the third quarter: Q3 2025 imports were $40.5 billion lower than Q3 2024 (inflation-adjusted) and $9 billion lower than Q2 2025. Imports fell from over $417 billion in March 2025 to $348 billion in April and May and $335 billion in June. In July, imports rose again to $354 billion, and then fell again to $334 billion in August 2025 and were $335 billion in September. Quarter-by-quarter export trends saw Q2 at $843.3 billion and Q3 at $836.8 billion.
As has been the trend since 2019, the decline in imports from China is being swamped by growing imports from other countries. This will result in an overall larger U.S. trade deficit with the world in 2025 relative to 2024. The nine-month U.S. trade deficit with the world is $757.7 billion relative to $662.5 billion in 2024, an increase of 14%. Chinese investment in countries such as Vietnam and Mexico has created a workaround for Chinese firms to reach U.S. markets and benefit from the trade terms these countries have with the United States. Compared to the end of 2024, imports from Mexico, Taiwan, and ASEAN countries have increased in 2025. Monthly imports from Canada, China, South Korea, and Ireland are down from the end of last year.
Manufactured goods imports increased significantly in the first quarter of 2025, reaching a monthly total of over $300 billion for the first time in March 2025 (inflation-adjusted), according to the U.S. Census Bureau. In the third quarter of 2025, manufactured goods imports were $242.9 billion. The nine-month 2025 manufactured goods trade deficit is 11.6% higher than the same nine months in 2024.
Durable goods shipments measure the dollar value of products designed to last three years or more sold by U.S. manufacturers. Growth in the U.S. Census Bureau’s “Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders” data, specifically the “American Manufacturers’ Shipments for Durable Goods” data, can be considered an indicator of growth in manufacturing activity. Durable goods shipments have increased each of the last three quarters from $881.7 in Q4 2024 to $888.4 billion in Q1 2025, $895.7 billion in Q2 2025, and $907 billion in Q3 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. (Some analysts refer to New Orders in the manufacturing report to gauge economic activity. While these are interesting numbers, we believe shipments to provide a more accurate picture of U.S. manufacturing activity given new orders are based on intention to buy and may be canceled.)
While overall durable goods shipments increased this year, shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft decreased by $5.7 billion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. This data cut captures both equipment and inputs/supply chain purchases. These capital goods shipments have increased slightly each quarter since Q4 2024, reaching $225.7 billion in Q3 2025 with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.43%. However, the level reached in nine months of 2025 is still below the higher value of these shipments set during the Biden administration in early 2024.
The U.S. manufacturing PMI has been steadily declining during the second Trump administration. A PMI above 50 points indicates the manufacturing economy is expanding while a PMI below 50 points indicates the manufacturing economy is declining. The index reached 50.9 points in January of this year, fell to 50.3 points in February, and declined further in March, April, and May 2025, according to Investing.com, which uses data from the Institute of Supply Management Report on Business. PMI has hovered between 48.2 and 49.1 points since March. Prior to 2025, the index was most recently over 50 points in March 2024.
After peaking at $243.5 billion (adjusted for inflation) in June 2024, U.S. construction spending in manufacturing declined to $216.5 billion in August 2025, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Construction spending skyrocketed in 2022 and 2023 after the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act was signed into law in November 2021 and the Chips and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act were signed into law in August 2022. Spending on manufacturing construction — including new factories and expanding or updating existing facilities — has fallen month-over-month each month since January, although it rose rapidly in 2022, hit the highest level in 30 years in 2023, and remains at historically high levels.
No administration can quickly turn around decades of U.S. trade deficits and deindustrialization. But it is notable that many manufacturing indicators show worsening outcomes. Additionally, the 2025 trade deficit so far is higher than the 2024 figure. While, since April 2025, imports have declined likely due to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, the lack of certainty and stability that have characterized them are likely having a chilling effect on manufacturing activity and investment as is the termination of Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS and Science Act industrial policy funding. As well, to date, the trade “agreements” the administration has announced do not include terms designed to change the underlying causes of surging imports from the countries that are the main source of the structural imbalance. Very little detail is available — perhaps very little is agreed — for the various deals that have been announced thus far. But at a high level, these deals do not meet the criteria that would be beneficial in addressing the U.S. trade deficit and deindustrialization.