July 3rd, 2025
by Katie Hettinga, Policy Analyst
Americans’ reliance on imported food has grown dramatically. The United States had a $58.7 billion food trade deficit by 2024. From 2015 to 2024, the U.S. food trade deficit increased by over $46 billion. Almost all of the declining balance—93%—is due to an increase in imports.
We cannot export our way out of this hole, contrary to Big Ag claims that new trade agreements will fix the deficit. The Trump administration’s demands that other countries accept more U.S. exports will not close the gap.
In June, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) delayed and partially blocked the publication of a trade report because it predicted an increased agricultural trade deficit. The report (eventually published without the written analysis that usually accompanies the data) predicted that the trade deficit in farm goods will reach a record $49.5 billion this fiscal year. (Agricultural trade is a broader category that includes non-food items like fibers, wood products, and industrial oils.)
Rethink Trade’s analysis—measured by calendar year and using publicly available data from the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC)—finds that the U.S. food trade deficit was more than $58.7 billion in 2024. (We include the seafood products that we eat but that are left out of the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) definition of agricultural goods.)
The last year the U.S. did not have a food trade deficit was 2014. This year’s deficit is projected to hit a record high as imports continue to increase.
We’ve had a trade deficit in agricultural goods—including fiber, forestry, and industrial products, animal feed, and other agricultural products not primarily used for human consumption—since 2017.
On our day of national independence, we’re reliant on more imported food than ever.
We now have trade deficits in several common 4th of July celebration staples—even for some goods for which we had maintained surpluses in recent years:
According to the USDA, more and more of the food and beverages consumed in the United States are imported.
The majority of the grain and oilseed milling products (such as flour and soybean meal), fruits and tree nuts, and seafood consumed in the United States are imports. Imports also comprise more than a third of the vegetables, beverages, sugar, and sweeteners consumed in the United States.
It’s highly unlikely. In 2024, the United States exported over $4 billion more in food products to its top five export destinations than it did in 2015, yet the food trade deficit is still larger than ever.
The United States’ top food export categories by value are oil seeds (such as soy, canola, and cotton seeds), meat, cereals (such as wheat, corn, and rice), fruit and nuts, and miscellaneous edible preparations.
The recent decline in oil seeds (mostly soy) and cereals (mostly corn) exports is due to Chinese importers sourcing those products from other countries after trade tensions have escalated between the United States and China. Merely forcing China or other countries to buy more soy, corn, or other low-value-added U.S. commodities via coerced purchasing obligations or tariff cuts during negotiations related to the Trump administration’s chaotic tariffs—while continuing to import a massive amount of value-added foods, as seen in the following section—will not address the root cause of the deficit.
Food imports from top trade partners continue to increase. In 2024, the United States imported over $33 billion more in food products from its top five import sources than it did in 2015.
Our top food import categories by value are beverages, fruit and nuts, seafood, cereals preparations, and vegetables. Since 2015, imports in all five of these categories have increased: seafood by $219 million, beverages by $3.1 billion, vegetables by $4.1 billion, fruit and nuts by $5.3 billion, and cereals preparations by $7.7 billion.
The current trade system and its impact on agricultural trade requires a deep rethink. Existing trade deals tolerate export subsidies that promote a few large global monopolists in the agricultural trading and processing sectors to the detriment of farmers and consumers around the world. Existing rules undermine supply management, domestic promotion of local food production and smaller-scale farming, and safety nets for small farmers.
The United States needs to create policy space for smart farm and food measures that promote American farmers’ ability to grow more of the food we eat and for the facilities needed to process this food. We support Farm Action Network’s call to shift U.S. farm policy to prioritize the domestic production and processing of healthy foods and to reduce support for the production and export of lower-value corn and soybean commodities used primarily for animal feed, industrial products, and unhealthy foods.
We also need to address severe concentration in the foods sector. The “ABCD” grain trading giants—Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge Limited, Cargill Inc., and Louis Dreyfus Company—are estimated by UNCTAD to account for at least 70 percent of the global food market share. These corporations dominate U.S. soy and corn exports, and profit off of commodity price volatility. With respect to broader food and ag markets, a September 2024 report by antitrust attorney Basel Musharbash for Farm Action Network found that the agricultural supply chain—from inputs to processing to distribution—is controlled by roughly three dozen corporations. In order to, a In order to counter market monopolization and give family farms a fighting chance, we need aggressive antitrust action against processing cartels and other large agribusinesses, active enforcement of the Robinson-Patman Act to address discriminatory pricing, and stronger terms in existing competition law like the Packers and Stockyards Act to prevent processers from abusing their market power. A renewed commitment by the Trump administration to enforcing competition law would greatly benefit the small and midsized farms currently struggling to continue operating in extremely consolidated sectors.
Import and export data downloaded from USITC DataWeb: Imports for Consumption and Domestic Exports.
For “agricultural trade,” we follow the WTO Agreement on Agriculture product coverage but include Chapter 3, fish and fish products. The full list includes HS Chapters 1 through 24; individual goods HS codes 2905.43, 2905.44, and 3823.60 (organic chemicals) and 3809.10 (finishing agents); and individual goods under HS headings 33.01 (essential oils), 35.01–35.05 (starches and glues), 41.01–41.03 (hides and skins), 50.01–50.03 (raw silk and silk waste), 51.01–51.03 (wool and animal hair), 52.01–52.03 (raw cotton and waste), and 53.01 and 53.02 (raw flax and raw hemp).
For “food trade,” we include HS Chapters 1 through 22 less select non-food products, including live animals not primarily used for meat or other products; inedible animal or plant products; horticultural products; vegetable plaiting materials; industrial acids; and animal feed. Download the HTS codes included for food and agricultural trade figures here.
Import share of consumption data downloaded from USDA Economic Research Service: U.S. Export Share of Production, Import Share of Consumption (2008-2022).
