June 30, 2026 | Press Release
For Immediate Release: June 30, 2026
Press Contact: Allie Gross, agross@economicliberties.us
WASHINGTON, D.C. – On July 1, USTR Jamieson Greer meets with Mexican and Canadian trade ministers for a mandatory 6-year USMCA review. If they do not agree to the 16-year extension of the deal set forth in the text, which is not expected, the three must meet by July 1 annually for the next ten years. Already negotiations to modify USMCA have started with Mexico. On July 1, 2036 USMCA sunsets unless the countries have agreed to extend some version of it. Lori Wallach, director of the American Economic Liberty Project’s Rethink Trade said:
“USMCA should not be extended given six years later we can see that despite some key improvements on NAFTA, what Trump called the best trade deal ever has not reversed terribly low wages in Mexico or mass U.S. job offshoring while the trade deficit has only worsened showing major improvements are needed for a deal to benefit, not hurt, working people, independent farmers and small businesses.
Key USMCA Outcomes from Rethink Trade’s Report:
Six Years Later – Rosy USMCA Promises Meet Reality
USMCA not only failed to meet President Trump’s promises that it would end job offshoring, create more U.S. manufacturing jobs and balance trade, but opposite outcomes resulted:
- Trump said USMCA would rebalance North American trade. Instead, the U.S. goods trade deficit with USMCA partners rose by 36.3% with the U.S.–Mexico goods trade deficit up 47%
- Trump promised that USMCA would create 80,000 new U.S. auto manufacturing jobs. In early 2026 there were 36,200 fewer jobs in the sector than when USMCA began.
- Under USMCA the overall number of U.S. manufacturing jobs has declined: In the first 11 months of Trump’s second term (February–December 2025), the U.S. lost 91,000 manufacturing jobs. Mexico added roughly 700,000 manufacturing jobs since USMCA began.
- In USMCA’s first two years (July 2020-July 2022), the Department of Labor certified that 41,357 U.S. workers lost jobs due to trade with Mexico and Canada. (Congress lapsed for the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program so, full data for the six years of USMCA is not available.)
- Mexican manufacturing wages remain roughly 40% lower than Chinese manufacturing wages and 88% lower than those in the United States.
- The U.S. food trade deficit with Mexico and Canada grew 28.9% 2019-2025 as imports outpaced exports.
- Between July 2020 and June 2025, the U.S. government initiated 37 cases using USMCA’s novel Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM) that resulted in tens of thousands of workers benefitting from reinstatements, transparent union votes, and better workplace protections. But only 11 of 32 concluded cases resulted in new union representation or contracts and only in USMCA’s first years.
Rethink Trade is a program of the American Economic Liberties Project. Learn more about Economic Liberties and Rethink Trade.